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Independent · Est. 2026

EXPLAINER·August 3, 2026

Thresholds: Why Two Nearly Identical Crowds Do Opposite Things

A walk through Granovetter's threshold model of collective behavior: what a threshold is, the arithmetic that turns a distribution of them into an outcome, the three mechanisms the paper's own author uses to dismantle its most famous result, and the fifty-year argument that followed about tipping points, complex contagion, and the 25 percent number.

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